Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study

Article history: Received 2 March 2011 Received in revised form 27 June 2011 Accepted 13 July 2011 Available online 9 August 2011 This paper explores how the foresight practices and techniques that might be used for coping with environmental uncertainty are coordinated throughout large corporations and how their results are used for supporting strategic decision making. Based on an in-depth and multiple study of several companies, we analyse the main characteristics of environmental uncertainty complexity and dynamism that shape companies’ approaches to strategic foresight and uncertainty management. We explore the impact of growing complexity and dynamism on these approaches and the role of prediction and control in their design and implementation. We outline a conceptual framework for strategic foresight activities and their relationships with decision making under uncertainty as a planned learning process about the future which enables managers not to know opportunities and threats in advance, but to detect them more promptly and to react more effectively as soon as they start emerging. © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.